Every Ballot Counts: one-page brief (Oct 28, 2026)

The concern. Since 2025 the federal government has rebuilt how agencies share personal data and has given itself election roles through immigration, national-security and “election integrity” authorities. It now runs its own check of who is a “real” voter. That check works outside SAVE and outside the state systems courts have reached, and it is already producing lists of named voters that DOJ asks states not to count. The risk after Nov 3: a cyber incident blamed on a foreign country, the FBI taking over the “investigation” and the evidence, and a federal list used to set aside ballots or challenge certification before Jan 3. Each piece exists on paper today.

What happened in the last two weeks

• Oct 13: California receives a federal list of 20,930 “likely noncitizen” voters. DHS’s own declaration says FDNS (USCIS) built it from a California voter roll bought from the Secretary of State (buyer not named) and handed to HSI by a DHS senior counselor, matched through LexisNexis Accurint and State and SSA records, not SAVE (D, Dkt. 107-2, 107-3).
• Oct 16: FBI and CISA say the FBI “is responsible for investigating and prosecuting election crimes, specific to foreign influence and interference,” and route reports to the FBI and IC3 (D, PSA I-101626-PSA). IC3 reports sit in FBI-controlled systems (D, IC3 privacy page).
• Oct 16–23: DOJ warns California counties that counting flagged ballots risks criminal liability (R).
• Oct 22: DOJ sues to block certification of Alaska’s Senate race (D/R). The Attorney General won’t rule out DOJ stepping in under “some doomsday scenario” (R).
• Oct 26: Trump offers $1M for voter-fraud tips leading to arrests; no agency named (R). DOJ asks Washington to set aside 400+ ballots (R). DHS says 17,000+ more records are under review “on a rolling basis before the election” (D).
• Oct 26–27: FEC e-filing goes offline; staff email: “We have a bad actor attempting to breach FEC systems” (R, Reuters). No attribution.
• Oct 27–28: Judge Carter denies DOJ’s request to hold California ballots: DOJ likely lacks standing, setting listed ballots aside would likely violate federal voting law, the court “cannot conclude that [DOJ’s] process is credible,” and “these threats must stop” (D, ECF 149). LA County certifies by Dec 3, the state by Dec 11. The Ninth Circuit dismissed DOJ’s request Oct 26 (R).
• Oct 28: Trump tells TIME he doesn’t “rule anything out,” including a federal emergency declaration (R). Congress has not received required pre-election intelligence reports (R, CBS).

Watch for (full board: tripwires)

1. Any official tying a current hack (FEC, a county, a vendor) to China, Russia or Iran.
2. FBI announcing an election investigation or seeking ballots, machines or voter databases (precedent: Fulton County, Jan 2026).
3. Any emergency or “significant incident” declaration.
4. A new list sent to another state, or delivery of the 17,000 batch.
5. A court order to hold ballots, or DOJ going to the Supreme Court; certification suits before Jan 3.

What to ask for

• The source. Which data, vendors and matching rules produced each federal voter list, and the error rate (the court’s special master is now asking).
• The list’s home. Which system holds the “likely noncitizen” records (FDNS case system, the USCIS data lake, ICE platforms), under which privacy notice, and who can query it.
• The FBI lane. Whether the FBI has opened election-related investigations tied to foreign interference, and whether election reports to IC3 are being used to build cases.
• The overdue reports. The pre-election foreign-threat reports owed to Congress.
• A commitment. No federal data match used against a ballot without notice and a chance to respond; certification on schedule.

Evidence: architecture map · system registry · phrase trail. Marks: D document · R reporting · I inference. Independent research by a private citizen. Contact: amanda.everyballotcounts@gmail.com